Subnational Election Experience: A Predictor of Parties Running for President

This study investigates how parties' engagement and outcomes in subnational elections influence their decisions to compete in presidential races. Using an original dataset spanning 17 European and Latin American countries from 1990 to 2013, the analysis reveals that both participation and performance in these regional contests significantly predict a party's entry into the national presidency race. Importantly, this effect persists even when parties previously ran for president or faced concurrent elections.

Key Findings:

• A party's presence AND performance in subnational elections are strong predictors of presidential candidacies
• The pattern holds regardless of prior presidential runs by the party
• Concurrent subnational and presidential elections do not obscure this relationship

Why This Matters:

This research demonstrates that local electoral experiences provide crucial guidance for parties' higher-stakes political strategies. By quantifying how regional outcomes translate into national decisions, it illuminates an important pathway through which democratic representation operates across different scales of governance.