How do states decide to join intergovernmental organizations that challenge US dominance? Examining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), founded in 2015, reveals a clear distinction between early and late members.
Context & Question: The AIIB was established as an alternative to the US-led Asian Development Bank (ADB) in the Asia-Pacific region. While it aims to counter hegemonic influence, its membership evolved unexpectedly after China's launch.
- Analysis: This study argues that early members were politically distant from the US—both internationally and domestically—but later members aligned with Washington or already had ties via ADB.
- The analysis employs logit models: testing which states joined initially (2014 MOU signatories) versus those admitted subsequently in 2015, using UN voting patterns as a proxy for international alignment.
Findings: Contrary to initial expectations that the AIIB would attract anti-US actors exclusively, early members showed low adherence to democratic governance norms. Meanwhile, late admissions attracted states closely aligned with the US or already integrated into its financial systems.
Why It Matters: This case underscores how counter-hegemonic organizations can paradoxically evolve toward hegemonic alliances—offering insights into cooperation politics and alliance formation dynamics.
