Presidential Approval Follows a Predictable Cycle: Evidence from Latin America

This study investigates presidential popularity dynamics, building on the familiar US pattern where approval starts high post-election ('honeymoon'), declines, then surges near term's end. The authors tackle whether this cycle is universal across presidential systems or specific to the United States. To resolve this question and overcome data limitations in comparative studies, they introduce a new dataset: 324 opinion surveys from Latin America covering 18 contemporary presidents.

Data & Methods:

• Leveraged Executive Approval Database 1.0, a novel collection of opinion polls.
• Analyzed quarterly approval metrics across 18 diverse Latin American presidential democracies.

Key Findings:

• The cyclical model—honeymoon, decline, end-term boost—is confirmed with strong evidence in these countries.
• This pattern appears robust despite differences in socio-economic and political contexts among the nations studied.

Why It Matters:

• Provides a clearer understanding of public opinion shifts during presidential terms beyond just the US context.
• Opens avenues for future comparative research exploring approval cycles' connection to electoral, institutional, and socioeconomic factors across different regions.