The Peruvian Truth and Reconciliation Commission's (TRC) use of capture–recapture methods for documenting mass violence has typically been lauded. With 25,000 records, the TRC estimated roughly 69,000 killings, concluding that Shining Path was the primary perpetrator — contrary to what raw data suggested about state involvement.

🔍 Data & Methods

Examined documented deaths via capture-recapture analysis. But note: the TRC employed an indirect approach combining various perpetrator types and pooling missing information.

📊 Estimation Results

Standard direct methods show starkly different outcomes:

* ~48,000 total killings

* Peruvian State responsible for a much larger portion

🚨 Contradiction

This challenges the accepted view that capture-recapture corrects observed data biases.

The TRC's indirect technique actually skewed results by combining perpetrator groups.