This article examines a puzzle: why do more available mediators see fewer armed conflicts receive mediation between 1989 and 2013?
Finding️ Analysis shows this isn't due to conflicts becoming more fragmented, intractable or internationalized.
The decline is explained by:
- A mismatch between supply (more mediators) and demand (fewer conflict opportunities)
- The rise of Islamist armed conflicts since 2001
- Increased use of terror-listing that excludes these conflicts from mediation possibilities
Why It Matters️ This challenges the notion that post-Cold War mediation rates were high.
The findings suggest international mediation needs adaptation to remain relevant in today's conflict landscape.
