New research reveals a counterintuitive trend: despite more international mediators available for armed conflicts, mediation rates have declined since 1989.

The analysis uses quantitative data from 1989 to 2013 showing this unexpected drop cannot be attributed to conflict fragmentation or increased complexity.

Instead, the findings point to a supply-demand mismatch in international conflict resolution. Islamist armed groups and post-9/11 counterterrorism policies have pushed many conflicts beyond mediator reach.

This challenges the idea that the post-Cold War era features high mediation rates and suggests adaptation of mediation practices is urgently needed.