Under electoral authoritarianism, opposition voters often abstain due to perceived lack of influence in elections or policy outcomes. This research examines a field experiment by an opposition candidate during Russia's 2016 parliamentary election where informational fliers were distributed door-to-door.
## Data & Methods
* A large-scale campaign targeting 75% of households in Moscow and Saint Petersburg districts with over 240,000 fliers
* Study design drew from established democratic research but tested effectiveness under information scarcity conditions typical of autocratic elections
## Key Findings
The results showed no significant difference between informational groups:
* Fliers stressing election closeness produced negligible impact on turnout or votes
* Fliers linking voting to policy outcomes failed to substantially alter voter behavior
This demonstrated that, despite politicians' hopes and some theoretical expectations, voter education campaigns are ineffective in uncompetitive autocratic settings.
## Why It Matters
These findings challenge existing assumptions:
* Informational strategies do not overcome apathy effectively under restricted information conditions
* The power dynamics of electoral authoritarian systems may be more resistant to opposition mobilization than previously theorized
This study provides crucial insights into understanding political behavior in autocratic regimes.
| Mobilizing Opposition Voters under Electoral Authoritarianism: A Field Experiment in Russia was authored by Leonid Peisakhin, Arturas Rozenas and Sergey Sanovich. It was published by Sage in R&P in 2020. |
