This study investigates who starts political disputes by examining a unique dataset of ethnic conflicts across Africa. Using advanced statistical modeling techniques applied to original data collection, the research reveals an unexpected pattern: democratic transitions actually increase conflict initiation rates in some contexts.

Data & Methods:

Original datasets meticulously compiled from archival records and local interviews covering 40 African nations over two decades 📑

Research employs machine learning algorithms alongside traditional regression analysis 🔍📊

Analysis considers contextual variables including resource scarcity, ethnic diversity, and post-election perceptions 💡🌍🔥

Key Findings:

Contrary to common assumptions, democracy does not uniformly suppress dispute initiation ✋

The transition period proves particularly volatile for some ethno-nationalist groups 🛑⚠️💥

Results show complex interactions between institutional change and ethnic mobilization 🔗🔄

Why It Matters:

Findings force political scientists to reconsider theories about democratic peace dividend ❓

Has significant policy implications for managing post-election tensions in transitioning states 🏛️⚖️

The research suggests nuanced approaches are needed when promoting democratization in ethnically divided societies 👥🌍