The idea that growing middle classes drive democracy is common, but evidence in nondemocratic countries like Russia remains sparse. This study examines how politically relevant differentiation within the Russian middle class affects protests.

🔄 Methods

Drawing from surveys at mass demonstrations and detailed population data, it introduces case-control methods borrowed from epidemiology to analyze protest mobilization patterns.

📊 Key Findings

• State-sector professionals are significantly less likely to oppose electoral fraud than expected;
• If private sector protesters matched public participation rates, an additional 90,000 protesters could have been present;
• The results point to individual resources and selective incentives shaping protest behavior.

📍 Why Russia Matters

The findings suggest that even in a country with substantial middle-class growth, political alignment varies by employment sector. This challenges assumptions about homogeneous middle-class interests.