More Than Meets the Eye? How Coalitions Shape Negotiation Outcomes

Party elites in coalition governments face scrutiny from supporters who evaluate bargains through simple heuristics, focusing on visible outcomes while overlooking trade-offs. This attention to observable results affects portfolio allocation strategies across 16 parliamentary democracies.

Data & Methods

• Original data analysis of office rewards and policy risks
• Examination of portfolio allocations in 16 parliamentary democracies

Key Findings

• Parties strategically prioritize visible outcomes to maintain supporter confidence
• Unobservable trade-offs exist despite the focus on measurable gains

The Puzzle

Our findings indicate that apparent bargains often mask significant underlying compromises. This disconnect between supporters' perceptions and actual negotiation outcomes has profound implications for understanding descriptive representation in multiparty systems.

Using original data, we demonstrate this disconnect's impact across multiple parliamentary democracies.