Introduction
Support for leaving the European Union in the 2016 referendum was significantly higher in U.K. regions most severely affected by economic globalization, particularly the import surge from China.
Global Trade Pressures
- The study attributes Brexit vote variation primarily to trade pressures, specifically focusing on increased imports from China over three decades.
- These trade shocks negatively impacted regional economic performance and fueled political discontent leading to a higher likelihood of voting Leave in the referendum.
The Displacement Effect
- Using an instrumental variables approach, the analysis suggests this effect stems from job displacement caused by import competition.
- Importantly, overall immigrant stocks or general inflows were not associated with Brexit support; only immigrants specifically from EU accession countries showed a statistically significant positive link to Leave votes.
Sociotropic Response
- When analyzing individual-level data, the findings indicate voters reacted to economic shocks in an aggregated (sociotropic) manner.
- This means regional residents voted based on their perception of overall economic conditions and job losses attributable to globalization, even if they themselves were not directly affected.
Why It Matters
This research provides crucial empirical insights into how international trade dynamics shape domestic political outcomes in advanced economies.
