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Global Competition's Local Impact: How Trade Pressures Fueled Brexit

Brexit ReferendumEconomic GlobalizationImport CompetitionUK RegionsEuropean PoliticsAPSR4 Stata filesDataverse
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### Introduction

Support for leaving the European Union in the 2016 referendum was significantly higher in U.K. regions most severely affected by economic globalization, particularly the import surge from China.

### Global Trade Pressures

* The study attributes Brexit vote variation primarily to trade pressures, specifically focusing on increased imports from China over three decades.

* These trade shocks negatively impacted regional economic performance and fueled political discontent leading to a higher likelihood of voting Leave in the referendum.

### The Displacement Effect

* Using an instrumental variables approach, the analysis suggests this effect stems from job displacement caused by import competition.

* Importantly, overall immigrant stocks or general inflows were not associated with Brexit support; only immigrants specifically from EU accession countries showed a statistically significant positive link to Leave votes.

### Sociotropic Response

* When analyzing individual-level data, the findings indicate voters reacted to economic shocks in an aggregated (sociotropic) manner.

* This means regional residents voted based on their perception of overall economic conditions and job losses attributable to globalization, even if they themselves were not directly affected.

### Why It Matters

This research provides crucial empirical insights into how international trade dynamics shape domestic political outcomes in advanced economies.

Article card for article: Global Competition and Brexit
Global Competition and Brexit was authored by Italo Colantone and Piero Stanig. It was published by Cambridge in APSR in 2018.
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