How Demolishing Public Housing Shifted Voter Loyalties: A Racial Threat Effect

Urban renewal in Chicago between 2000 and 2004 displaced over 25,000 African Americans from public housing projects. This article examines the impact of this demographic change on white voters' political behavior.

### The Experiment ###

The forced relocation created a unique natural experiment to test how changes in outgroup demographics affect voting patterns.

### Voter Response ###

Following displacement:

• White voter turnout decreased by over 10 percentage points
• Support for conservative candidates increased among white voters

### Racial Threat Mechanism ###

This behavioral shift was driven by psychological racial threat effects, not pre-existing political differences. The findings suggest that:

Bullet: Voter reactions to outgroup changes reflect a sensitivity to demographic shifts

Bullet: Proximity matters more than raw population numbers for mobilizing effects

### Key Implications ###

The results indicate that spatial sorting theory applies directly to electoral behavior, offering insights into how neighborhood composition influences political representation.