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Why Voters Fixate on Future Economic Conditions Regardless of Other Factors
Insights from the Field
economic indicators
public opinion polls
media framing
election forecasting
Political Behavior
AJPS
1 datasets
1 PDF files
Dataverse
Its (Change In) the (Future) Economy, Stupid: Economic Indicators, the Media and Public Opinion was authored by Stuart Soroka, Dominik Stecula and Christopher Wlezien. It was published by Wiley in AJPS in 2015.

Article Title:
Its (Change In) the (Future) Economy, Stupid

This article examines how economic indicators influence public opinion through media coverage. The piece argues that despite numerous other factors affecting political discourse and voter decision-making, voters disproportionately focus on future economic conditions when evaluating government policies.

Media Influence:

  • The study analyzes patterns in media framing of elections
  • Cases where alternative policy issues were highlighted by news outlets
  • Demonstrating the economy's persistent dominance in political narratives

Public Response:

  • Voters consistently prioritize economic forecasts over other factors
  • This preference holds across different demographic groups and media exposure levels
  • The economy overshadows considerations of ethics, social justice, or environmental concerns

Research Findings:

  • Economic indicators receive significantly more media attention during elections
  • This heightened focus correlates with stronger voter engagement on economic issues
  • The persistence of this phenomenon across electoral cycles suggests deep-seated political psychology factors at play

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American Journal of Political Science
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