The 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine marked a period of significant political change amid weak institutions. Using census-like panel data on over 7,000 manufacturing enterprises, this study investigates its economic impact.
Data & Methods
Leveraging comprehensive firm-level longitudinal data covering Ukrainian regions during the transition following Yushchenko's election allows for robust analysis.
Key Findings
Analysis reveals a striking divergence: firms in pro-Yushchenko areas experienced productivity increases exceeding 15 percentage points compared to those in anti-Yushchenko regions. This effect appears concentrated among three groups benefiting most from the political shifts:
- Large enterprises
- Government suppliers
- Private sector businesses with strong ties to national-level outcomes.
Why It Matters
These findings demonstrate that unexpected political turnover can have substantial distributional effects even in contexts of weak institutional capacity. The results highlight how policy changes during transitions may disproportionately favor specific economic actors.
