Recent studies show the economy during election years has a stronger influence on presidential results than long-term economic performance. This article presents surveys and experiments challenging standard political science explanations, instead drawing from psychological research.
### Data & Methods: Surveys and Experiments
Researchers analyzed voter behavior through various polls and designed experiments to probe voter decision-making processes.
### Key Findings: Voters' Judgment Heuristics
The evidence reveals voters actually intend to evaluate presidents on overall economic growth but, due to accessibility issues with cumulative data, unconsciously rely on election-year performance as a stand-in. This phenomenon reflects a broader cognitive bias where people simplify retrospective judgments by focusing on end-points.
### Why It Matters: Bridging Voter Intention and Behavior
Understanding this 'end heuristic' is crucial for accurate campaign forecasting. Importantly, the research shows that if voters are provided with cumulative growth information during elections—like through well-designed public reports—they can be helped to overcome their cognitive shortcut.
| Substituting the End for the Whole: Why Voters Respond Primarily to the Election-Year Economy was authored by Andrew Healy and Gabriel Lenz. It was published by Wiley in AJPS in 2013. |
