How do legislative primaries affect electoral performance? This question is examined through a novel lens in the context of Ghana's new democracy. Existing theories suggest primaries may hurt parties by selecting extremists or help them choose high-valence candidates, but these mechanisms are challenged where clientelism is prominent.
Drawing on original data from Ghana, this study proposes that intra-party conflict plays a crucial role. The findings reveal an unexpected pattern: legislative primaries actually helped opposition parties and hindered the ruling party in the subsequent legislative election. This partisan divide was not limited to Ghana alone; similar spillover effects were observed in presidential elections.
The evidence shows:
- A primary bonus (improved performance) for opposition candidates
- A primary penalty (worsened performance) for ruling party candidates
- Spillover impacts influencing presidential outcomes as well
