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Small Country Samples: Why Bayesian Wins Over Frequentist Multilevel Models

Multilevel ModelingMonte Carlo ExperimentBayesian EstimationCross-Level InteractionsMethodology@AJPS2 Stata files1 datasetDataverse
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Comparative research often uses multilevel models to study how country-level factors affect individual behaviors. However, these traditional estimation methods face challenges when data includes only a few countries.

➡️ How Few Countries Work:

A large-scale Monte Carlo experiment reveals that maximum likelihood estimates can be severely biased with limited country samples, particularly in models featuring cross-level interactions.

➡️ Bayesian Solution:

Bayesian approaches demonstrate much greater robustness and provide more conservative test results even when the number of countries is small.

➡️ The Takeaway:

Researchers should consider using Bayesian methods for multilevel analyses involving few countries to improve reliability.

Article card for article: How Many Countries for Multilevel Modeling? A Comparison of Frequentist and Bayesian Approaches.
How Many Countries for Multilevel Modeling? A Comparison of Frequentist and Bayesian Approaches. was authored by Daniel Stegmueller. It was published by Wiley in AJPS in 2013.
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American Journal of Political Science
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