Understanding sustainable energy transitions requires considering how exogenous shocks interact with path dependence and political competition. This analysis reveals that government type fundamentally alters policy responses. Green governments strategically leverage positive reinforcement mechanisms to strengthen renewable advocacy coalitions, while brown governments deliberately underfund renewables to avoid cultivating a green constituency.

Green Governments: Use coalition building to secure support for renewables despite higher international energy prices reducing the effectiveness of these strategies.

Brown Governments: Underprovide public support when competition is high, intentionally weakening policy momentum.

The findings demonstrate that path dependence operates differently based on political incentives and competition levels. This nuanced approach improves our understanding of how complex factors shape sustainable energy outcomes.