This study explores macro implementation—the long-term effects of U.S. public policies on federal incarceration rates.

Methodology & Data Sources

The research employs diverse methods to analyze how aggregate criminal justice policies influence new prison admissions through three key mediators: case filings by federal prosecutors, conviction rates in district courts, and plea bargaining behavior.

Key Findings

* Supreme Court rulings demonstrably shape federal incarceration by altering conviction patterns in district courts over time.

* However, the study finds limited evidence of direct influence from U.S. Congress or presidential actions on these outcomes.

Why It Matters

These results highlight a significant tension: while legislative bodies create policies, their effectiveness depends heavily on how subordinate agencies interpret and implement them.

The findings underscore that in criminal justice policy, the Supreme Court may possess considerable leverage over bureaucratic execution.