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Insights from the Field

Ethnic Matching in Kenya Elections: Coethnic Officers Deployed Strategically


Ethnic Geography
Coethnic Officers
Swing Areas
Kenya Elections
African Politics
AJPS
5 R files
6 datasets
1 text files
1 PDF files
Dataverse
The Strategic Shuffle: Ethnic Geography, the Internal Security Apparatus, and Elections in Kenya was authored by Mai Hassan. It was published by Wiley in AJPS in 2017.

### Ethnic Geography & Officer Placement

This study examines how Kenyan autocrats strategically assigned officers during multi-party elections. The research shows a distinct pattern where presidents placed coethnic officers in swing areas while keeping opposition's coethnic officers away.

### Data Analysis

Using an unprecedented data set of 8,000 local security appointments from Kenya's 1990s period,

  • researchers identified officer assignments based on ethnicity and area importance for the election
  • analysis revealed systematic placement patterns across different regions

### Key Findings

The findings demonstrate a significant principal-agent problem:

* Autocrats strategically deployed loyal officers to key electoral districts.

* This ethnic matching strategy helps secure votes in competitive areas while avoiding potential opposition leverage.

### Significance for Democratization Theory

This research reveals how state institutions from Kenya's previous authoritarian era persistently influence democratic processes despite official multi-party reforms. The strategic use of coethnic appointments demonstrates a mechanism by which autocratic legacies can undermine electoral fairness and full democratization.

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