This study analyzes petition canvassing as a form of political recruitment. We develop the concept of rational social prospecting, arguing that effective recruiters employ dynamic (Bayesian and time-conscious), spatially constrained by geography, and socially conditioned strategies based on their relationships with potential recruits.

Using geocoded signatory data from two historical campaigns—a 2005-6 anti-Iraq War initiative in Wisconsin and an 1839 antislavery effort in New York City—we test this hypothesis. Our findings reveal striking evidence of homophily, demonstrating that canvassers deliberately follow inefficient recruitment routes.

📊 Data & Methods:

Geocoded signatory lists from two campaigns:

• 2005–6 anti-Iraq War initiative in Wisconsin
• 1839 antislavery campaign in New York City

🔍 Key Findings:

• Canvassers exhibit strong homophily, prioritizing geographically and politically similar recruits even when it means longer travel times.

• They alternate between door-to-door canvassing and attractor (central location) approaches based on systematic geographical variation across regions.

• Adjustment occurs mid-campaign as recruiters refine their strategies with experience.

⚖️ Political Implications:

These seemingly inefficient patterns may actually reinforce existing inequalities by limiting the reach of recruitment efforts to poorer or less educated populations.