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Insights from the Field

Why Your Experimental Data Might Be Messed Up - And How to Fix It


Regression discontinuity
conditioning bias
posttreatment control
causal inference
Methodology
AJPS
2 R files
5 datasets
5 PDF files
1 text files
Dataverse
How Conditioning on Posttreatment Variables Can Ruin Your Experiment and What to Do about It was authored by Jacob M. Montgomery, Brendan Nyhan and Michelle Torres. It was published by Wiley in AJPS in 2018.

Experiments are supposed to be straightforward for estimating causal effects. But they often go wrong. Scholars sometimes distort treatment effect estimates by conditioning on variables manipulated in the experiment.

What scholars do wrong:

* Controlling for posttreatment variables in statistical models

* Eliminating observations based on posttreatment criteria

* Subsetting data using posttreatment measures

The problem:

These practices can bias estimates. The paper shows this isn't just a minor issue; it's widespread, even appearing frequently in top political science journals.

How we found out:

Researchers demonstrate the severity analytically and document potential distortions using visualizations and reanalyses of real-world data.

What you should do instead:

Provide practical recommendations for best experimental practices.

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American Journal of Political Science
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