In electoral autocracies, opposition coalitions are crucial for democratic transitions. A survey experiment in Malaysia revealed that voters initially support opposition candidates strongly before knowing the governing party makeup or potential outcomes.
• Context & Method: Investigated voter commitment to an opposition coalition despite anticipated post-election drawbacks
• Key Finding 1: Pretreatment support was strong, but conditional on specific government outcomes
• Key Finding 2: Support decreased significantly when least preferred parties were expected to govern
• Key Finding 3: Voters shifted preferences for ideological alternatives once outcome details emerged
This suggests democratic transitions require more nuanced understanding of how opposition unity depends critically on voter expectations about governing coalitions.
| Committed or Conditional Democrats? Opposition Dynamics in Electoral Autocracies was authored by Jennifer Gandhi and Elvin Ong. It was published by Wiley in AJPS in 2019. |
