Policymakers increasingly rely on subjective well-being or happiness metrics to gauge societal progress. But does this matter politically?
Context: This analysis uses a long-run panel dataset of European elections spanning four decades.
Analysis Approach: Comparing the predictive power of well-being metrics against standard macroeconomic indicators for election results and voting intentions.
Findings: National measures of happiness consistently explain more variance in governing party vote share than traditional GDP or unemployment data. Similar patterns emerge at individual voter levels, both cross-sectionally and over time.
Why It Matters: These insights highlight the growing political salience of subjective well-being metrics as a predictor of electoral behavior across diverse European contexts.
| Happiness and Voting: Evidence from Four Decades of Elections in Europe was authored by George Ward. It was published by Wiley in AJPS in 2020. |
