This study surveyed staffers from nearly 200 campaigns during the 2012 U.S. elections, asking about expected vote margins.

Campaign Survey Design

The research partnered with state Democratic parties and directly assessed campaign personnel's perceptions.

Key Staff Perceptions

Survey respondents consistently showed more optimism than fear when evaluating their chances:

• Campaign staff across races expressed confidence in victory rather than anxiety about loss

• Optimism was particularly pronounced among campaigns representing incumbents or higher offices

Election Psychology Implications

The findings suggest political operatives tend toward unrealistically favorable assessments.

This widespread overconfidence may limit the effectiveness of relying on electoral competition alone as a mechanism for democratic accountability.