This study surveyed staffers from nearly 200 campaigns during the 2012 U.S. elections, asking about expected vote margins.
Campaign Survey Design
The research partnered with state Democratic parties and directly assessed campaign personnel's perceptions.
Key Staff Perceptions
Survey respondents consistently showed more optimism than fear when evaluating their chances:
• Campaign staff across races expressed confidence in victory rather than anxiety about loss
• Optimism was particularly pronounced among campaigns representing incumbents or higher offices
Election Psychology Implications
The findings suggest political operatives tend toward unrealistically favorable assessments.
This widespread overconfidence may limit the effectiveness of relying on electoral competition alone as a mechanism for democratic accountability.
| Campaign Perceptions of Electoral Closeness: Uncertainty, Fear, and Over-Confidence was authored by Ryan Enos and Eitan D. Hersh. It was published by Cambridge in BJPS in 2017. |
