Key Question 📚 State repression effectiveness remains unclear despite its prevalence in nondemocracies. This research examines county-level voting patterns near military bases before Chile's 1973 coup using a novel spatial analysis approach.
Data & Methods 🔬 We analyze base locations pre-coup and correlate them with two key measures: government killings/disappearances during the Pinochet era, and electoral registration/voting "No" decisions in the crucial 1988 plebiscite. Our identification leverages geographic discontinuity to isolate repression's spatial impact from political motivations.
Key Findings ✅ Counties near military bases experienced higher government violence under Pinochet yet showed increased likelihood of:
This geographic paradox suggests repression's effectiveness may be inversely related to its visible intensity. Two potential mechanisms emerge: residents near bases receive more direct information about repression costs, potentially altering their political calculus; alternatively, proximity might reduce salience or trust in the regime but requires testing with additional data.
Why It Matters 🌍 The 1988 results represent a pivotal moment in Chile's democratic transition. Intriguingly, this study finds no evidence that the spatial effects of repression influenced political preferences post-transition despite their documented electoral impact during Pinochet's rule.
| The Geography of Repression and Opposition to Autocracy was authored by Maria Angelica Bautista, Felipe Gonzalez, Luis R Martinez, Pablo Muñoz and Mounu Prem. It was published by Wiley in AJPS in 2023. |
