Key Question 📚 State repression effectiveness remains unclear despite its prevalence in nondemocracies. This research examines county-level voting patterns near military bases before Chile's 1973 coup using a novel spatial analysis approach.
Data & Methods 🔬 We analyze base locations pre-coup and correlate them with two key measures: government killings/disappearances during the Pinochet era, and electoral registration/voting "No" decisions in the crucial 1988 plebiscite. Our identification leverages geographic discontinuity to isolate repression's spatial impact from political motivations.
Key Findings ✅ Counties near military bases experienced higher government violence under Pinochet yet showed increased likelihood of:
This geographic paradox suggests repression's effectiveness may be inversely related to its visible intensity. Two potential mechanisms emerge: residents near bases receive more direct information about repression costs, potentially altering their political calculus; alternatively, proximity might reduce salience or trust in the regime but requires testing with additional data.
Why It Matters 🌍 The 1988 results represent a pivotal moment in Chile's democratic transition. Intriguingly, this study finds no evidence that the spatial effects of repression influenced political preferences post-transition despite their documented electoral impact during Pinochet's rule.
| The Geography of Repression and Opposition to Autocracy was authored by Maria Angélica Bautista, Felipe González, Luis R. Martínez, Pablo Muñoz and Mounu Prem. It was published by Wiley in AJPS in 2023. |
