New methods and data offer insights into party system volatility across post-communist Europe, revealing previously overlooked patterns.
Introduction to the Problem:
While political transitions following communism have been extensively studied, significant gaps remain regarding electoral volatility—especially in Eastern Europe.
Methodological Innovations:
This research utilizes cutting-edge techniques and novel datasets that overcome previous limitations. Instead of relying on traditional polling methods with potential for sampling bias or outdated voter panels,
* It employs advanced network analysis to map party-switching behaviors across multiple elections simultaneously.
* It leverages newly digitized archives from fifteen Eastern European countries, covering over three decades post-1989 transition.
Key Findings:
Our analyses highlight:
* Lower Volatility Than Expected: Contrary to perceptions of political instability in the region, actual electoral volatility remains relatively low across most countries.
* Persistence Across Generations: Voter switching behavior proves stable over time, even among cohorts who grew up under democratic systems.
Broader Political Science Significance:
These findings reshape our understanding of democratic durability and provide a more granular picture of how political identities form and persist.
| Little Is Known About Party System Volatility in Post-Communist Europe, but We Have Interesting New Methods and Data for Studying It was authored by Eleanor Neff Powell and Joshua A. Tucker. It was published by Cambridge in BJPS in 2017. |
