Vote Expectations Predict Elections Better Than Intention Polls

Britain Elections Voter Perceptionprediction accuracypoll comparisonVoting and Elections @BJPS 6 R files 6 datasets Dataverse

This study compares voter expectations and intention polls by examining eight forecasting models for British general elections. Data from ComRes, Gallup, and Essex Continuous Monitoring Surveys (1950-2017) provide a large sample of 449 months with both expectation and intention polling data. The findings show that vote expectation models consistently outperform vote intention polls in predicting election outcomes.

Article card for article: Vote Expectations Versus Vote Intentions: Rival Forecasting Strategies

Vote Expectations Versus Vote Intentions: Rival Forecasting Strategies was authored by Andreas E. Murr, Mary Stegmaier and Michael S. Lewis-Beck. It was published by Cambridge in BJPS in 2021.