Dealing with rising public debt during elections is challenging. Governments often face significant voter backlash, contrary to common belief.
This study reveals a key flaw in previous research on fiscal austerity measures—a strategic selection bias that underestimated their political impact. Conducting survey experiments across five European countries (Spain, Portugal, Italy, the UK, and Germany), we demonstrate voters strongly oppose spending cuts, more so than tax increases or deficits.
Findings:
- Voters disproportionately dislike spending reductions proposed in austerity packages
- These policies significantly threaten government re-election chances despite their fiscal purpose
- Public backlash appears stronger when considering overall costs rather than just deficit reduction potential
This challenges policy recommendations from international financial institutions and shows the political risks of austerity measures outweigh previously understood electoral preferences.
