How Accurate Were Election Markets During The Chaotic 2020?

In this study, we examine how well prediction markets captured public sentiment during the unprecedented events of the 2020 US Presidential election. Using data from the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), a long-standing experimental asset market for political forecasting, our analysis reveals that despite widespread disruptions caused by COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns, economic recession fears, and nationwide protests, these markets continued to provide surprisingly accurate predictions across multiple electoral levels.