Introduction
This article examines state-level forecasts from the 2020 US Presidential Election. Despite predictions of a tough campaign for Biden, he ultimately secured victory.
Context & Findings
The analysis focuses on how polling data and predictive models assessed close races in key states. These tools consistently underestimated support for the Democratic candidate across battleground areas.
Methodology
Researchers used sophisticated quantitative models to predict election outcomes based on voter surveys and historical trends. The results highlighted systematic errors in standard forecasting approaches.
Implications & Recommendations
These findings suggest a need for more nuanced predictive frameworks that account for late-breaking political dynamics. Future elections may require recalibrating traditional polling methods.
| State-Level Forecasts for the 2020 US Presidential Election: Tough Victory Ahead for Biden was authored by Bruno Jerome, Veronique Jerome, Philippe Mongrain and Richard Nadeau. It was published by Cambridge in PS in 2021. |
