Electoral Weakness Drives Protectionist Trade Policy

Presidential Particularism in U.S. Trade Politics

This paper explores how presidential electoral incentives shape trade policy decisions through unilateral executive actions.

What Is Presidential Particularism?

Presidential particularism refers to the strategy where leaders strategically distribute political favors based on electoral considerations rather than a consistent ideological stance.

Our findings reveal that:

• Presidents systematically allocate protectionist benefits (via executive orders) using an electoral calculus;
• States lacking comfortable presidential majorities receive more trade protections from 1986–2006;
• This distributive behavior extends significantly into the realm of foreign affairs;
• The president's authority for unilateral trade adjustments remains substantial.

This research demonstrates that seemingly non-partisan executive actions often reflect underlying political motivations.