Trade Shocks Fuel Secessionist Views in Catalonia

Introduction

This research reveals a materialistic basis for secession preferences in Catalonia. Economic vulnerabilities, particularly anticipated trade and insurance shocks, significantly shape views on independence.

Methodology & Findings

Drawing from an original survey before the 2017 regional election, we identify three key drivers:

• Trade Disruptions: Respondents specializing in domestic markets disproportionately oppose secession due to fears of economic instability.
• Insurance Security: The long-term unemployed show stronger preference for independence as it potentially excludes them from public insurance systems.
• Skill Advantage: Higher-skilled individuals, not necessarily because they expect better financial outcomes post-independence, support secession. They understand complex interterritorial redistribution mechanisms and are more skeptical about accommodation within the union.

These findings advance a materialistic perspective on understanding regional separatism at an individual level.