Two Centuries of Regime Coalitions: Autocracies Broaden Support, Cities Rise

Why Study Regime Support Coalitions?

Carl Henrik Knutsen, Sirianne Dahlum, Magnus B. Rasmussen, and Tore Wig map who supports and opposes political regimes across modern history to explain a core question in political survival: which social groups sustain regimes, and how has that social base changed over time? The authors introduce the concept of a "regime support group"—the organized social actors whose backing a regime depends on—and argue that measuring these groups is essential for understanding regime durability, co-optation strategies, and political change.

ReSOG: A Global Expert-Coded Dataset, 1789–2020

The article presents and validates the Regime Support and Opposition Groups (ReSOG) dataset, which covers roughly 2,000 political regimes in nearly 200 countries from 1789 to 2020. Drawing on knowledge from about 1,000 country experts, ReSOG records the size and principal geographical location of regime support coalitions and key opposition actors. The dataset also classifies the social composition of supporters and opponents using a 14-category scheme that distinguishes groups such as urban elites, rural elites, labor, military, religious actors, and others.

What the Authors Measure and How

• The dataset estimates both the relative size of support coalitions and where they are concentrated geographically (for example, major urban centers versus rural regions).
• Measures are expert-coded and undergo validation procedures reported by the authors to assess reliability across countries and historical periods.
• The 14-category social classification provides a consistent way to trace shifts in the social foundations of regimes over more than two centuries.

Key Findings

• Support coalitions have generally broadened over time, a pattern that is particularly pronounced in autocracies.
• Major urban groups have risen in importance as constituents of regime support coalitions across the globe.
• Rural elites have declined in relative political importance as part of regime backers.

Why This Matters

By producing a validated, longitudinal account of who supports and opposes regimes worldwide, Knutsen et al. supply a unique quantitative resource for research on regime survival, democratization, elite coalitions, and the geography of political power. The ReSOG dataset enables comparative and historical analysis of how regimes build and maintain coalitions—and how those strategies shift with processes like urbanization and social mobilization.