Abstention can fundamentally alter electoral results in Europe. This paper uses Coarsened Exact Matching to impute votes from non-voters across 15 countries, revealing a surprising divergence between voters and those who don't cast ballots.
Methodology
We applied CEM—a novel approach—compared to traditional voter simulation methods for predicting abstainers' voting behavior. Our analysis leveraged survey data from these nations.
Key Findings
CEM successfully predicts how non-voters would vote if turnout were higher. Results indicate that increased participation could significantly boost social democratic parties while substantially hurting extreme left and green parties.
Policy Implications
These findings challenge assumptions about representative democracy in Europe, suggesting electoral outcomes may better reflect public preferences under compulsory voting scenarios.
| It's a (Coarsened Exact) Match! Non-Parametric Imputation of European Abstainers' Vote was authored by Damien Bol and Marco Giani. It was published by Cambridge in PSR&M in 2021. |
