Rebel Threats Boost Postcolonial State Power, Rival States Don't

New research challenges the idea that rival states drive postcolonial state-building. Instead, it finds that fighting transnational rebels significantly increases governments' direct tax collection and non-tax revenue (state autonomy). Using interrupted time series data on 72 countries from 1972-2002, we show how military action against rebels strengthens the state.

Military Intervention & Rebel Combat

Our study examines how postcolonial governments respond to security threats. We analyze direct and indirect military actions taken between 1972 and 2002 in 72 developing nations.

Findings: Threat Type Matters

• Fighting transnational rebels increases state revenue collection capabilities
• Responding to rival states decreases tax revenues
• This suggests postcolonial priorities are shaped by actual versus potential threats

Why It Matters

These findings demonstrate how security dynamics influence institutional development in postcolonial contexts. The results highlight the importance of rebel presence as a catalyst for state-building, while challenging conventional wisdom about interstate rivalries.