Why do autocratic leaders survive economic crises? The Argument
This article argues that natural resource revenues since the 1960s have bolstered autocratic resilience during economic downturns.
Economic Shift & Resource Effects
- The availability of alternative revenue streams provides autocrats with constant funds.
- This increases repression capabilities and credit access. These factors collectively shield leaders from crises that might otherwise spark regime change.
Historical Context: A Changing Landscape
- Extending the analysis back to 1875 reveals a strong crisis-vulnerability link in pre-20th century autocracies.
- However, this relationship weakened significantly after the 1960s emergence of substantial resource revenues.
Methodological Rigor
- Findings hold across alternative specifications and endogeneity tests using IV estimation.
- Deeper analysis confirms that economic crises' effects are moderated by natural resource income.
🔍 The Takeaway
This challenges the view of a strong, direct crisis effect on autocratic survival; it explains why some autocrats weather crises while others do not.
