Trade Ties vs. Language Loyalties: How Economic Exposure Shapes Ukraine's Foreign Policy Preferences

This study explores how citizens' ethnolinguistic identity influences their foreign policy preferences toward Russia and the EU, particularly in regions with varying trade dependencies.

Data & Methods: Survey responses from Ukrainian citizens combined with trade data between Ukraine and its two largest partners (Russia and EU). Regression analysis identifies key drivers of preference variation across geographic contexts.

Key Findings:

• Cross-Cutting Cleavages: Foreign policy preferences are significantly influenced by both language identity and regional economic ties to Russia/EU.
• Regional Variation: Ukrainians with Russian identity in high-trade-with-EU regions show stronger EU preference; similarly, Ukrainian speakers with strong trade ties to Russia lean toward that partner. These findings reveal a nuanced 'representation gap'.

Why It Matters:

This research provides crucial insights into how economic relationships interact complexly with cultural identities when shaping public opinion on critical foreign policy issues in divided societies.