This study explores how citizens' ethnolinguistic identity influences their foreign policy preferences toward Russia and the EU, particularly in regions with varying trade dependencies.
Data & Methods: Survey responses from Ukrainian citizens combined with trade data between Ukraine and its two largest partners (Russia and EU). Regression analysis identifies key drivers of preference variation across geographic contexts.
### Key Findings:
* Cross-Cutting Cleavages: Foreign policy preferences are significantly influenced by both language identity and regional economic ties to Russia/EU.
* Regional Variation: Ukrainians with Russian identity in high-trade-with-EU regions show stronger EU preference; similarly, Ukrainian speakers with strong trade ties to Russia lean toward that partner. These findings reveal a nuanced 'representation gap'.
### Why It Matters:
This research provides crucial insights into how economic relationships interact complexly with cultural identities when shaping public opinion on critical foreign policy issues in divided societies.
| Foreign Policy Preferences in Ukraine: Trade and Ethnolinguistic Identity was authored by Celeste Beesley. It was published by Oxford in ISQ in 2019. |
