Governments often provide economic aid during conflicts hoping it will win civilian hearts. But does it actually change support for combatants? We tested this using a factorial RCT on 2,597 youth at risk of joining the Taliban or government forces in Kandahar.
Our results show cash transfers initially increased pro-government sentiment but reversed over time, boosting Taliban support instead. Vocational training barely affected incomes and had no lasting impact.
This suggests aid shapes attitudes by demonstrating government resolve—not through economic gains alone. These findings highlight the complex relationship between material assistance and political alignment in conflict zones.
