An analysis reveals the butterfly ballot used in Palm Beach County, Florida during the 2000 presidential election significantly contributed to erroneous voting for Reform candidate Pat Buchanan.
Data & Methods: The study utilizes multiple methods and various datasets to investigate vote discrepancies. Researchers examined all U.S. counties where Buchanan was on the ballot, with a focus on explaining his unexpected vote margin in Palm Beach County.
Key Findings:
* Over 2,00 Democratic voters mistakenly voted for Buchanan due to the butterfly ballot design.
* This number exceeds George W. Bush's certified margin of victory by over threefold.
* Buchanan received disproportionately more excess votes in Palm Beach County compared to other counties.
Why It Matters:
This suggests that specific ballot designs can have profound impacts on election outcomes, particularly for third-party candidates receiving votes from distressed Democratic voters.
| The Butterfly Did It: The Aberrant Vote for Buchanan in Palm Beach County, Florida was authored by Jonathan Wand, Kenneth Shotts, Walter R. Mebane, Jasjeet Sekhon, Michael Herron and Henry E. Brady. It was published by Cambridge in APSR in 2001. |
