The relationship between economic development and democratization remains contested. This paper examines how national income correlates with democratic government over time. Longer-term (10-20 years), higher income levels are linked to increased democracy, but this connection appears delayed.
Data & Methods: Comprehensive historical income data analyzed alongside political transition records.
Key Findings: Development alone doesn't drive democratization quickly; breakthroughs occur only after incumbents leave office. In the short run (first few years), faster growth actually strengthens authoritarian rule by increasing leader survival odds.
In contrast to long-serving leaders who typically preserve autocracy, shorter tenures often involve reformist politicians focused on change rather than mere survival. This selection effect explains why post-leadership transitions sometimes lead to democracy when economic conditions improve.
| Income, Democracy, and Leader Turnover was authored by Daniel Treisman. It was published by Wiley in AJPS in 2015. |
