The Puzzle
When authoritarian regimes collapse, communal violence often spikes. Some areas are more vulnerable than others.
A New Take
New research argues that intercommunal order depends on alignment between formal and informal security institutions.
During breakdowns, weakened state control exposes mismatches in institutional arrangements.
Villages heavily reliant on military intervention developed stronger state-dependent informal security systems.
This creates vulnerability when the formal state withdraws support.
Methodology
The study uses village-level data from across Indonesia and employs an instrumental variables approach.
It proxies prior military intervention exposure using distances to security outposts as a key variable.
Key Findings
Communal violence peaks during democratic transitions when there's misalignment between formal state institutions and embedded local systems.
This research shows how Indonesia's transition revealed fault lines created by this mismatch.
