New research reveals that election violence boosts incumbent victory odds, yet creates heightened risks after elections. This nuanced effect reflects shifting political dynamics throughout the electoral cycle.
During Campaigns:
- Collective action against incumbents concentrates during pre-election phases, manifesting in either voter mobilization or opposition boycotts. These actions are direct responses aimed at preventing incumbent wins.
After Election Day:
- Once an unfavorable outcome seems likely, anti-government sentiment erupts into mass protests. This post-violence collective action often has severe consequences for incumbents despite any pre-election boosts.
The study underscores that election violence's impact is time-sensitive and complex. It increases immediate chances of winning but can trigger dangerous political fallout afterward.
