Election Violence Ups Incumbent Chances But Could Spark Post-Election Chaos

New research reveals that election violence boosts incumbent victory odds, yet creates heightened risks after elections. This nuanced effect reflects shifting political dynamics throughout the electoral cycle.

During Campaigns:

• Collective action against incumbents concentrates during pre-election phases, manifesting in either voter mobilization or opposition boycotts. These actions are direct responses aimed at preventing incumbent wins.

After Election Day:

• Once an unfavorable outcome seems likely, anti-government sentiment erupts into mass protests. This post-violence collective action often has severe consequences for incumbents despite any pre-election boosts.

The study underscores that election violence's impact is time-sensitive and complex. It increases immediate chances of winning but can trigger dangerous political fallout afterward.