This study examines how community exposure to wartime ethnic violence influences post-war political preferences. We find that high-violence areas actually increase support for ethnic parties by solidifying identities and fostering distrust toward outsiders.
Our analysis relies on detailed data tracking wartime casualties at the community level in Bosnia, combined with pre- and post-war election results. This unique dataset reveals a clear pattern across multiple robustness checks.
🔍 Data & Methods: Used community-level casualty records from 1992-1995 and tracked election outcomes throughout the transition period (1998-2003)
🧠 Proposed Mechanism: Violence strengthens ethnic solidarity while simultaneously increasing prejudice against non-co-ethnics
📊 Key Finding: Higher exposure to violence correlates with stronger support for ethnically-based political parties
📝 Causal Evidence: Survey data from 1996 confirms the relationship between violence experience and voting preferences holds even years after conflict
| How Exposure to Violence Affects Ethnic Voting was authored by Dino Hadzic, David Carlson and Margit Tavits. It was published by Cambridge in BJPS in 2020. |
