External economic shocks can profoundly reshape domestic politics. Using the 2015 Swiss franc revaluation as a natural experiment, this study reveals how material vulnerability to financial crises drives political preferences among Polish citizens.
🔍 New Data Source: An original survey conducted before Poland's 2015 elections identified voters most affected by currency fluctuations.
💡 Key Finding: Those directly exposed demanded more government intervention while simultaneously deserting incumbent parties. This paradoxical behavior created opportunities for opposition parties to strategically expand their coalitions without losing core supporters.
🌐 Real-World Implications: The research demonstrates how unexpected international economic events can be leveraged by political actors across Europe, particularly in countries like Poland within the eurozone.
📊 Methodology Highlight: A survey experiment embedded in a pre-election poll allowed precise measurement of voter reactions to this exogenous shock.
| The Political Consequences of External Economic Shocks: Evidence from Poland was authored by John Ahlquist, Mark Copelovitch and Stefanie Walter. It was published by Wiley in AJPS in 2020. |
