Brexit Surprise: How Pro-EU Campaigns Shift Attitudes Despite Small Effects

Survey ExperimentMessage FramingEU ReferendumPolitical ScienceEuropean Politics BJPS 5 Stata files 1 dataset Dataverse

This article examines lessons from the 2016 EU referendum regarding message framing effects. Through an innovative online survey experiment with a two-wave panel design, it explores campaign impacts on public attitudes.

Campaign Effects Experiment: Using experimental methods to test how different EU membership messages affect voter opinions during referendums.

Method: Two-wave online survey experiment tracking attitude changes over time regarding the UK's EU relationship.
Design: Explores asymmetrical information environments where pro-EU arguments may be underrepresented.

Pro-EU Message Impact: Findings reveal substantial potential for campaign effects from positive framing, suggesting significant influence despite expected minimal impact. This demonstrates notable shifts in public opinion when campaign messages highlight benefits of EU membership.

Political Science Relevance: Results offer insights into the role of asymmetric information and message framing in high-stakes political referendums worldwide.

For and Against Brexit: A Survey Experiment of the Impact of Campaign Effects on Public Attitudes toward EU Membership was authored by Matthew Goodwin, Simon Hix and Mark Pickup. It was published by Cambridge in BJPS in 2020.