This Means: Political inclusion backfires as new leaders anger elites, leading to paramilitaries' violence

New theories challenge the idea that political representation reduces conflict. Using a regression discontinuity approach, we examine Colombia's elections where previously excluded left-wing parties gained office. This led to increased violent events by right-wing paramilitaries - one standard deviation higher than expected.

Data & Methods: Regression discontinuity design analyzing local election outcomes in Colombia

Key Findings: Paramilitary violence surged after new political actors entered government, while other forms of violence remained unchanged

Why It Matters: This shows established elites respond defensively to outsiders' access to power through the use or threat of violence