This article examines how terrorist attacks affect support for Islamic State (IS) online, analyzing 300,842 observations from 13,321 Twitter accounts during a 127-day period.
Surprise: Our findings show that after major attacks, the number of followers for IS-related accounts actually decreases significantly. We investigate two competing mechanisms driving this outcome:
🔍 Data & Methods 🔍
We use unique Twitter data collected over time to track follower changes following specific attack events, treating these as natural experiments.
💡 Key Findings 💡
- Number of followers drops for IS-linked accounts post-attack
- Evidence points to disengagement rather than deterrence as the primary mechanism
- Followers appear less likely and not more inclined to join despite attacks
🔎 Why It Matters 🔎
This study challenges assumptions about terrorism by showing that violent acts may actually repel potential supporters, offering insights into group dynamics under crisis.
