States Interfere in Elections When Domestic Politics Divide
New research reveals that foreign state intervention in elections abroad occurs when the main domestic contenders adopt sharply contrasting policy positions. This phenomenon, termed policy polarization, differs from previous understandings by focusing on divisions between incumbents and opposition rather than governmental unfriendliness.
Novel Measurement Outperforms Alternatives
The study introduces a groundbreaking measurement of policy polarization that significantly outperforms existing methods when analyzing intervention patterns—both supporting democratic processes or opposing candidates based on alignment with U.S. interests.
U.S. Intervention Patterns, 1945-2012
Analysis shows the United States more actively supports elections abroad when domestic political forces are aligned with U.S. interests versus their opponents. Specifically:
- Pro-US opposition vs anti-US government: Support democratic process and candidate interventions favoring the pro-US side.
- Pro-US government vs anti-US opposition: Support governmental candidates while undermining the electoral process.
Broader Implications for All Major Powers
These findings extend beyond U.S. intervention, demonstrating that policy polarization serves as a universal predictor of foreign election meddling by major powers.
