New research leverages an unexpected prime minister resignation in August 2014 to test the "hearts and minds" model. This study argues that political transitions raising expectations for future government services can decrease support for violent opposition groups.
Context: A surprising leadership change provided a natural experiment during a national survey being conducted across Iraq.
Key Finding: The resignation led Sunnis, Iraq's minority group, to shift loyalty from violent opposition toward the government.
This realignment was driven by:
- Increased Optimism: Sunni Arabs expected improved services (security, electricity, jobs).
Why It Matters: The findings support the counterintuitive idea that raising expectations for governance improvements can strengthen public backing and reduce support for rebellion.
